What’s the ROI of social media? Of TV? Of PR? Of a successful customer service program? I once heard someone observe that one of the cruel ironies of advertising is the number of people who chose the profession as a way to avoid math. On a related note, I have an urgent announcement to college juniors struggling with Accounting. Advertising is no longer as clear a career path.

Which brings me back to math. High school math, to be specific. One of my most clear memories of Algebra is as applicable a lesson to the ROI of marketing as I’ve heard. The more variables you know, the easier the equation.

The same goes for the ROI of your marketing program. What’s the ROI of social media? It depends on a number of factors, including but not limited to: What’s the value of a visitor to your website? What’s the value of a qualified lead? What’s the value of positive customer experience? What about the lack of negative buzz?

When you understand the value of your variables, the ROI equation gets a lot easier. As you walk slowly to the chalkboard, start by figuring out what you already know.

I’ve always thought the phrase “math problem” was a misnomer. The only math problem I know of is if you think you don’t like math. Math is a tool that can help prove your worth.

They’ve aggregated data, developed algorithms and built predictive models. All towards the end of understanding what the airlines are going to do with their prices before the airlines actually do it.

I have a feeling that airline fares are just the beginning. Case in point, Murphy USA just released an app that helps you find the cheapest gas in your area (something Progressive has been doing with insurance for years). This type of technology can fundamentally change how Price Wars work. Your next move depends on what kind of brand you have.

Scenario One: Cutting prices is a necessary evil of the sales cycle. Things just got worse. The old adage – If you offer a sale, consumers will learn to wait for a sale – is taken a step further. “When is the best time to buy this? Wait, let me check.” And if I can predict if and when you will lower your price on that widget, your brand matters more than ever. And my bottom line is this: Can you justify your higher price or should you just skip to your final offer?

Scenario Two: Sales are a part of the brand experience. Things just got better. Bargain hunters have acquired another tool and the game just got more fun – a new study from Deloitte shows just how fun it is to save. “How can I stretch my dollar the furthest? Wait, let me check.” And if I can predict that next Saturday is the day where I’ll be able to work my most magic, your brand becomes more important to me than ever. Because you offer me the ability to succeed on whatever measure I choose. It’s no longer just about a sale, it’s about a brand experience.

A study by Vitrue assessed the average Facebook fan at $3.60 – based on a model of media impressions. On the other end of the spectrum, a study by Syncapse featured a more complex approach and a much higher valuation – $136.38.

Both are good examples that your outputs are only as good as your inputs.

The studies’ flaws have been well-documented elsewhere. And I won’t spend time on the methodology of either except to say this: The value of your fans – whoever they are, online or off – depends mostly on how you connect with them. How you inspire them. How you turn them on. And that is a key element that is missing from both formulas.

ROI models struggle with the qualitative. It’s always been my soapbox with average ROI’s of media. They can’t take into account the value of the creative. Good creative moves mountains. Mediocre creative doesn’t.

We live in an Age Of Engagement. Leaving that out of a formula to determine the value of your brand community is the equivalent of Einstein settling on e=c².

There are two key words in the last paragraph. Manage and respond. They’re part of the old school communication model and definitely part of the new school.

Social media, primarily Twitter and Facebook, has changed the way public relations professionals manage and respond to a crisis. It’s a critical part of planning now.

Sure, the fundamentals still apply and provide the foundation for responding and managing a crisis situation well. Social media adds another element though. Suddenly, employees, community activists and passersby, among others, can be sources of information for the media.

So how do you successfully incorporate social media into your crisis communication plan? And have you updated it recently to include social media? If you haven’t, now’s a good time to dust it off and give it a look.

Crisis Communication Guidelines 2.0

1. Does your company/organization have a Twitter feed or Facebook page? If so, who oversees it and how do you plan on managing the flow of information? If the company/organization is not active on social media, it’s time to participate.
2. Who on the crisis communication team uses and is knowledgeable about social media? If there currently isn’t someone, a person needs to be identified to lead the effort.
3. What employees or staff members have Twitter accounts and Facebook profiles? It would be good to know in advance. Often, they can be sources of information for the outside world and you’ll want to develop employee/staff guidelines for a crisis situation, so the message is controlled, consistent and factual.
4. What reporters do you know that are using social media? What media outlets? It’s imperative to round up this information and connect with them so you can provide timely updates and know what’s being said about your brand and the situation.
5. Developments can happen fast in a crisis situation and often information is disseminated on-the-go. Are you set up to be mobile? A good starting point is to have a laptop, Wi-Fi connector and smart phone available. If you don’t have a smart phone, is there one ready? Is it loaded with the proper apps and addresses? Is there an extra battery and charger set aside as well?
6. Are you set up to share information online and via social networks? In other words, posting written and video statements to the company/organization website, a newswire, PitchEngine.com, Twitter and Facebook?
7. Are you optimizing your online content? It’s important that this happens and a skilled professional who understands search engine optimization assist with it. The better this is done, the higher up you’ll be on search engine result pages. Who’s your go-to person to accomplish this?

These are just a few thoughts for incorporating social media into your crisis communication plan. If you haven’t done it or have not reviewed your plan recently, there’s no time like the present.

What else would you add to this list?

Robin of Shoreditch. One of my favorite recent finds. Not only for the ideas – which are, on a whole, quite good – but for the sentiment. Check out the videos on Vimeo.

Six Items Or Less. It’s not a statement about consumerism. According to the site, “we haven’t dictated a driving thought.” It’s an interesting exercise in prioritization. Check out sixitemsorless.com.

Taped Together. Last winter, this became the soundtrack to my holidays. The new installment has been the soundtrack to almost all of this summer’s road trips. Check out the crowdsourced site and support the artists whose songs you like.

The Bucket Brigade. There are a phenomenal amount of smart people willing to share their wares online. Bud Caddell is one of the more prolific I follow. Go beyond supporting his new project – join his editorial board.

#BooksThatChangedMyWorld. Edward Boches has a good perspective on the hashtag as it relates to brands. You can join the conversation on Twitter.

The 3six5. A Posterous blog that features 365 days “as told by” 365 different people. A great idea that provides fresh perspective on a daily basis.

I was reminded of this when I saw a recent study by Chadwick Martin Bailey that found Americans are more excited about “the prospect of content delivery than they are about the devices the content may be carried on.”

A real world example: The World Cup discussion at our office last week focused as much around the fact that @laughjon watched the game in the backseat of a car on the drive up from Chicago as it did around Donovan’s goal.

These are our OnDemand Lives.

There is an important lesson here for marketers – one that goes beyond “focus on the benefit.” In an age where brands win by providing utility, how the utility is delivered makes a big difference. Is it simple? Intuitive? Noteworthy? Memorable?

For content creators – and we’re all content creators – the days of people beating a path to your door for the better mousetrap are over. Great content will always be an essential. But now its context and delivery are competing for attention.

And creativity matters. It cuts through clutter. It touches emotions. It solves problems. A new report out from The IPA found that, overall, campaigns that had been rewarded with the greatest number of accolades for their creative work were more successful in delivering positive results in the area of effectiveness (boosting market share, sales, profit and loyalty). Creativity delivers results.

And, just like everything else, creativity is evolving. The cover story of June’s Fast Company reports on its 100 Most Creative People In Business. The first thing I was struck by was the amount of very non-creative job titles (Research Director, Senior Software Engineer). But my big takeaway was that  – from the Fast Company perspective – a full quarter (27 of 100) had the title CoFounder or Founder. Creativity isn’t just “not knowing where you’re going to end up when you start.” It’s having a vision and executing on it.

Having ideas isn’t being creative. Recognizing and activating the game changing ones is.

That last one is a relevant question for marketers.

If we look critically at baseball, we may not need umpires any more. At least in the roll they’ve traditionally played. Cameras can determine whether the pitcher throws a ball or a strike much more consistently and accurately than any human being. Sensors can measure the relative impact of a foot hitting a base and a ball hitting a glove. Why not take advantage of these to make the game better?

But if we stop for a moment – and look at our own corners of the world – we are often guilty of overlooking the same types of progress.

Baseball keeps umpires on the field because it’s the way things have always been done. We don’t have that excuse in marketing. And just like baseball, some of the technology we would need to rethink how we do things already exists.

Unilever is using facial recognition software to help make low-fat ice cream more appealing. The United States Postal Service uses augmented reality to help you ship your package successfully. Google’s Goggles program let you search not only with words, but with pictures.

A question worth asking and, with the speed of new advancements, asking often: What technology aren’t we using?

What perfect game might you be erasing from the history books?

But I find how I got here interesting. I’ve always known about the product of soccer. I played it for more than a decade. Marketers take note, it’s not the game of soccer that sold me on the tournament. It was the technology and the advertising.

Technology Changes The Game. It was just announced that AT&T Uverse will be launching ESPN 3D in time for the 2010 FIFA World Cup. I don’t (yet) have a 3D TV, but  HD already makes the experience thoroughly enjoyable. It makes things that were previously uninteresting to me imminently watchable. Case in point, I have recently enjoyed both hockey and curling for the first times ever. Technology, quite literally, changes the game.

The Power of Advertising. From McDonald’s to Nike, big brands have drawn me in with emotional messages. Especially Nike. The “Write The Future” campaign is so good, I think it could redefine the role a corporate sponsor plays – I hope FIFA paid Wieden + Kennedy handsomely. [Update: Nike is not an official sponsor. Which doesn't change my feelings about FIFA paying them.] Before I’ve watched a minute, I know some players and I am emotionally invested in the fates of not only the athletes, but their fans. That’s the power of advertising.

Until the technology and advertising changed the game for me, I was never a fan of the “product.” We’ll see how the next month goes. But fanaticism (and its ensuing loyalty) does not seem out of the question.

One of my favorite recent examples of a job well-done is Ace Hardware and their ship-to-store model.

Study after study shows that consumers want free shipping. That’s not so much an insight as an observation (really, who wouldn’t want free shipping?) But rather than (a) biting the bullet and taking a lower margin, (b) upcharging the purchase to cover costs or (c) saying “no, it’s too hard,” Ace makes an offer that seems to work for everybody. FREE shipping… when you choose to Ship-to-Store.

And it’s working. In a recent eMarketer webinar titled, “The Advantages of Multichannel Marketing,” it was reported that 73% of Ace Hardware’s web orders are shipped to stores and these orders account for 80% of its online revenue. So, the numbers indicate it seems to be working for the consumer. And a noteworthy 33% of those customers who pick up an order in-store make an additional purchase. So Ace wins, too.

Ship-to-store isn’t rocket science. It just isn’t the way most marketers think of ecommerce. But the process to identifying this as an option isn’t a complicated one. Start with a consumer insight. Develop solutions that tie to both consumer needs and motivations your business’ strategic objectives. Execute. Win, win.

Addendum: In addition to free shipping, “ship-to-store” also addresses another consumer motivator – protection of time. Customers no longer have to be concerned of whether the product will be in stock when they go shopping – it will be, they made sure of it. Every week 25,000-30,000 Borders customers reserve online and pay in-store. A customer need is clearly being met. And Borders reports a similar figure to Ace Hardware – saying 35% of customers who pick up an order in-store make an additional purchase. Another win / win.