[I must admit, I had to rewrite this piece. I had it mostly written prior to the unveiling of the iPad, when we were all waiting breathlessly. The point was going to be that you had to earn people’s trust before they would believe in your vision. Turns out, that doesn’t necessarily work either. Instead, my observation may be even simpler...]
It’s hard to see the future. Doing so – with any degree of accuracy – is a gift. I was reminded of this simple fact this past week (in a tweet from @jasonoke).
On Wednesday, Steve Jobs took the stage to unveil the iPad. To say it was met with disappointment would be a bit of an understatement. Wait, keep reading. This is not really a post about the iPad. This is a post about the iPod. Back in October of 2001, initial reaction was – and people forget this – disappointment.
But Apple had a vision. And it followed through. Despite the inability of the masses to appreciate the possibilities. (One of my favorite comments from the initial iPod reaction and, remember, this is from someone on a Mac enthusiast discussion board: “I’d call it Cube 2.0 as it won’t sell, and be killed off in a short time and it’s not really functional.” That’s not exactly the headline I would use to describe the iPod today.)
It’s this kind of vision that we (as marketing strategists, creative folk, idea people, etc.) are asked to develop and follow every day. And new ideas (good and bad) are often met with that same level of skepticism, cynicism and disappointment.
What was the ROI of the iPod going to be? In 2001, it would have been hard to predict that the iPod would give birth to the iPhone which, in turn, would provide the basis of Apple’s strongest quarter ever in the worst economy since the Great Depression. But it did.
“Can’t” and “won’t” are too easy to say. There are far too many “no’s.” It’s early, but I’m still betting on the iPad. It only takes one person with 20/20 vision to change things.
