The most predictable thing about the economy right now is its unpredictability. The only growth area is the noise level of speculation about when it will start growing again.

The majority of my friends who make a living predicting these sorts of things feel things will get worse before they get better. Most believe 2009 will be worse than 2008. From what I can tell, the people who use numbers to divine the future see darkness.

My world is less well defined by statistics. Brands are about how people feel. Perception is reality here. Our chicken or egg economic questions are: Do economic conditions drive human behavior? Or, does human behavior drive economics?

The answer to both questions has to be yes, but if consumer spending is the sign of a healthy economy, perceptions will lead reality. In that regard, I believe the economy will get better before the numbers say it will. In all likelihood, things might be better already.

How can I say that? Well, we have a new president. That fact in and of itself produces optimism. On top of that, we’re just weeks removed from a process that saw our candidates for president spend $300,000,000 in advertising that reminded every voter how bad things are and how important it is to elect the only person who could possibly make things better. The election itself took a lot of air out of the bad news balloon. As far as new bad news, we’re becoming inured to it. So we’re now at a point where good news has more potential to create more good news than bad news can generate bad.

We can also look at human nature. We’re essentially optimistic by nature. We have a constitutional right to “pursue happiness.” We play slots and buy lottery tickets in the belief that we’ll win in spite of the odds.

Maybe that’s why busts don’t last as long as booms. This once-in-a-lifetime bust may have some life left in it, but there’s no doubt in this professional optimist’s mind that 2009 will end much more optimistically than 2008 did.

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